Though the word tariff may trigger have PTSD for some, this “trade war” with Mexico and Canada was a completely different scenario than what we saw with China 8 years ago.  An agreement to secure the boarder and slow the flow of illegal drugs is a much clearer and easier offramp than trying to reach an agreement on trade deficits/surpluses.  Bringing two countries into it and making a deal with one would instantly put pressure on the other to come to the table.  These types of headlines and chess matches are likely to continue for the foreseeable future, so stay nimble and try to look at things beyond face value. 

Corn

Monday’s Recap
Monday’s Corn market was higher over a sizable trading range, with the March contract up by 6’6 (1.40%), to 488’6. Overall volume was a heavy 671,851, with March seeing 322,166 traded. Across all maturities, open interest fell 9,930 (0.49%) to end the session with 2,012,386 outstanding. The March maturity lost 2.05%, or 9,930, to finish at 666,326.
Technicals
March corn futures were able to defend 3-star support yesterday which propelled prices back towards resistance at the close. The market is seeing some follow-through buying with all eyes on 499-502 1/4 as the next line in the sand. If the Bulls can chew through and close above this pocket, we could see another leg higher to keep the trend of higher lows and higher highs intact. The December contract has been a little lack luster over the last 24-hours, but we continue to see a constructive setup there as well.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 499-502 1/4**
Pivot: 487-488
Support: 477 3/4-479 3/4, 469 1/4-471 1/2

Popular Options
Option trading centered around the March 500 calls with 15,184 changing hands and the March 460 puts with volume of 8,778. Option open interest is greatest for the March 500 calls at 50,145, and the March 440 puts at 19,809.

Volatility Update
As measured by CVL, implied volatility ended sharply up, gaining 1.1 to close at a one month high of 23.66. The 30-day historical volatility closed gaining 0.27% to a one month high of 19.81%. The CVL Skew was slightly down with the 30-day lower by 0.087, closing the day at 1.95.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 2.3.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for May corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Managed money is now approaching lofty territory holding 350,721 contracts between futures & options. Meanwhile, commercials expanded their net-short position to 324,689 contracts between futures & options, likely due to the swath of farmer selling over the course of the past three weeks. If long liquidation materializes, it will likely see a drop in prices fairly quickly before stabilizing.

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