Ag Market Commentary

Corn climbed 5 3/4 to 6 cents on Thursday, but Dec futures were plus 10 3/4 at midday, The USDA announced private export sales of 110,744 MT of corn to unknown for 19/20 and 1.6 MMT (63 million bushels) of corn to Mexico this morning (1.074 MMT for 19/20 delivery and 525k MT for 20/21 delivery). Export bookings for the week ending 12/05 were above what traders had anticipated with the USDA reporting 873,525 MT. Shipments through the same week were 531,371 MT, which was 7.4% above Thanksgiving week, but still 44.19% below the same week last year. Accumulated shipments hit 6.876 MMT through the first 14 weeks of the MY.Ethanol production has averaged 1.008m bpd over the previous 10 weeks, but the new (including this recent data) 10-week average has increased by 12k barrels per day. Ethanol Stocks increased by the most in one week since June 28.

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.68 1/2, up 10 3/4 cents,

Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.77, up 5 3/4 cents,

May 20 Corn closed at $3.83 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.89 3/4, up 6 cents,

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Nearby soybean futures were up by 3 1/4 to 4 1/2 cents after Thursday action. Soymeal futures lost 40 cents/ton, while soy oil futures were up 65 points. The White House economic advisors met today to discuss phase 1 and the scheduled Dec 15th tariff hikes; at the meeting conclusion they announced both sides had agreed to a phase one deal, awaiting presidential sign offs. Market reaction was muted because this is the point where previous agreements went off the rails. Weekly USDA Export Sales data showed soybean bookings for the week ending 12/05 at the top end of trader estimates, with 1.05 MMT of current year sales. Total sales (including next MY) were 1.175 MMT. That was a 71.9% increase over last week, and a 59.1% increase over the same week last year for total net sales. Weekly shipments through the same week were at 1.443 MMT, a 4% decrease from last week and a 32.4% increase yr/yr. China was the destination for 62.19% of those shipments. Accumulated shipments since September 1 are 17.431 MMT. The trade was anticipating the weekly update to show 125-300k MT for soybean meal and the USDA report showed 257,668 MT of total meal bookings. As for bean oil, Bookings were just above the expected 8k-30k MT, with the report indicating 30,227 MT of sales through the week ending 12/5.

Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $8.98, up 4 1/2 cents,

Mar 20 Soybeans closed at $9.12 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents,

May 20 Soybeans closed at $9.25 3/4, up 4 cents,

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $9.38 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

Dec 19 Soybean Meal closed at $292.90, down $0.40

Dec 19 Soybean Oil closed at $31.88, up $0.65

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Kansas City HRW futures lead the way for a Thursday rally as contracts were as much as were up by as much as 12 1/2 cents. Chicago SRW futures were directly behind with gains of 8 1/2 to 10 1/4 cents. MPLS HRS wheat futures had plus 4 1/2 to 4 3/4 on the board at the close. Wheat bookings for the week ending 12/05 were 25.67% above market anticipation, with the USDA reporting 502,674 MT of weekly wheat sales. Those sales are 66.66% below the same week last year. Net sales were led by HRS wheat, which had 219,303 MT of weekly bookings, White wheat had 137,251 MT, with weekly export sales of 109k MT for HRW. SRW bookings were 720% higher wk/wk, but were 29.085% behind their weekly average through the MY. Japan purchased 171,045 of wheat in their monthly tender, with the U.S. filling 50.22% of the total. China announced their minimum support price for the 2020 wheat crop, the country did not change the MSP from 2019, but they added a cap to the amount of wheat the government would purchase. The first ever MSP ceiling is 37 MMT, but is not considered to be binding.

Mar 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.30 1/4, up 11 cents,

Mar 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.42 3/4, up 12 cents,

Mar 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.23, up 4 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures were mixed, April futures were 45 cents higher, while Dec and Feb posted 15 to 17 cent losses. Feeder cattle futures gave back back some of yesterday’s triple digits gains, posting losses of as much as $0.22 in the front months. The 12/11 CME Feeder Cattle index was at $143.31 with a 31-cent drop. Beef export sales for the week ending 12/05 were released this morning, and the USDA stated that 11,898 MT were sold. That was the second consecutive week with lower wk/wk sales and was 41.8% lower than the 5-week average. Within the same report, the USDA indicated that weekly shipments were 17,215 MT, which was a 17.68% increase over last week and only 9.7% below the 5-week average. Afternoon boxed beef prices are still weak. The Choice/Select spread is $13.09 and tightening seasonally. Choice boxes were a flat $3 lower this afternoon, while select boxes dropped by $1.16. Cash cattle negotiations this morning show $118 bids in TX, with asks still in the $121-$122 range. Cash cattle sales were reported at 119 in TX and KS this afternoon, while the USDA indicated some 117 action. Dressed sales were listed at $188 -$194. The FCE will hold a Friday sale this week, with showlists consisting of 977 head so far. Wednesday’s auction saw no sales. The USDA estimates week to date FI cattle slaughter at 386,000 head through Thursday, that is 9,000 head above last week’s pace.

Dec 19 Cattle closed at $120.425, down $0.150,

Feb 20 Cattle closed at $125.150, down $0.175,

Apr 20 Cattle closed at $126.325, up $0.450,

Jan 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.550, down $0.225

Mar 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.450, down $0.225

Apr 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.425, down $0.050

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures finished Thursday’s session in the black, futures gained $0.50 to $1.00 with Dec futures gaining 32 one day ahead of expiration. The 12/10 CME Lean Hog Index was at $59.46, after a 99-cent leap. Weekly export sales in pork were released by the USDA this morning, and the update for the week ending 12/05 showed 44,728 MT of bookings. That was a 53.2% increase over last week’s net sales, and 33.8% higher than total export bookings through the same week last year. Shipments were shown at 38,245 MT on the week, which pushed accumulated shipments to 1.487 MMT. USDA’s pork carcass cutout value was $1.53 lower this afternoon; picnic shoulder cuts were the only primals that were higher on the day. USDA’s national average base hog price for 12/12 was down by $0.11 at $47.94. USDA estimated FI WTD hog slaughter at 1.963 million head through Thursday, which is 19,000 head behind last week’s pace. Lowered Wednesday’s estimate by 6,000 head.

Dec 19 Hogs closed at $61.025, up $0.325,

Feb 20 Hogs closed at $68.725, up $1.000

Apr 20 Hogs closed at $74.750, up $0.500

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures closed in the black, with old crop advancing triple digits. Weekly export sales data released from the USDA this morning showed that cotton sales were up 70% wk/wk with combined net sales shown at 283,676 RB, sales were also above the 5-week average of 277k RB. The report showed accumulated exports of cotton grew 6% to 3.286 MRB on the MY, which is 15.67% above last year’s pace. The Seam online cotton trading reported another active day for 12/11 with 14,209 bales sold at an average gross price of 58.42 cents per bale. The Cotlook A Index regained yesterday’s 50 points and is back to 75.35 for 12/11. The updated AWP for cotton increased by 69 points to 56.66 cents per lb. The previous movement was a 23 point decrease. China outbought Pakistan in cotton sales, for the week ending 12/05. The PRC is typically the third largest purchaser of cotton export sales, with Pakistan having been the top purchaser through November for 3/4 of the weeks.

Mar 20 Cotton closed at 67.22, up 134 points,

May 20 Cotton closed at 68.16, up 121 points

Jul 20 Cotton closed at 68.74, up 99 points

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 68.01, unch

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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