Ag Market Commentary

Nearby contracts for corn rose by 3 1/4 to 3 3/4 cents on Friday, pushing the futures to a 4 1/4 cent gain on the week. Corn futures were again shorted by the spec traders. Their net position grew by 29,664 contracts wk/wk which was the largest wk/wk move since September 17th. Trade talk has JBS interested in importing corn from Argentina to meet needs in Brazil ahead of new crop harvest. Aggressive exporting has drained Brazilian supplies. Managed money has now been net short in corn for 17 consecutive weeks in the CFTC report. US and China have agreed to a Phase One deal, with the Chinese willing to include increased imports of US corn as part of the deal. Quantity is a big question mark. US Export commitments of corn are now 44% behind the same week last year, the smallest that gap has been since the beginning of the MY. Compared to the USDA projection, which was left unch on Tuesday, combined shipped and unshipped sales are 33% complete vs. the 50% average. Exports are 15% of that 1.85 bbu, behind the 22% normal pace but matching 2 of the previous 4 years.

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.66 1/4, down 3/4 cent,

Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.81, up 3 1/4 cents,

May 20 Corn closed at $3.88, up 3 3/4 cents,

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.93 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures were nearly up by double digits on Friday, retreating from earlier session gains of 18-19 cents. Optimism about increased Chinese purchases drove the buying. Meal futures were $2.70 higher Friday, with Jan meal down $2.40 for the week. Bean oil futures were 37 points higher, with Jan oil up 138 points for the week. For the last trading day, Dec Soymeal futures were up $2.90/ton at the close, likewise bean oil futures bounced 24 points on their last trading day. Specs were Net short in beans for the 3rd consecutive week, and the CFTC net position was -112,528 contracts as of Tuesday night. Just in time to get beat up on the rally! The last time managed money held a 100,000+ contract position on net was when they were 129,994 contracts short in May 2019. Over the last 7 weeks the specs have gone from 72,325 long to 112k short. The Commitment of traders also showed that specs were still net short for meal. Bean oil specs were reported 77,670 contracts net long as of Tuesday. That’s a 18,492 contract growth to their net position wk/wk. Analyst estimates for the NOPA Nov. crush report average 172.032 mbu of soybeans. November last year saw 166.959 mbu crushed, with the 5 year average at 161.72 mbu.

Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $9.06 3/4, up 8 1/2 cents,

Mar 20 Soybeans closed at $9.21, up 8 1/2 cents,

May 20 Soybeans closed at $9.35 1/4, up 9 1/4 cents,

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $9.47 1/2, up 8 3/4 cents,

Jan 20 Soybean Meal closed at $296.90, up $2.70

Jan 20 Soybean Oil closed at $32.60, up $0.37

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

The wheat market posted gains of as much as 2 3/4 cents in the front month, with front month KC wheat showing no change on the day. Chicago wheat futures were 8 cents higher wk/wk. KC wheat futures were higher by 12 cents over last week. MPLS wheat gained 12 cents wk/wk. In the weekly update from the CFTC, managed money in the Chicago futures was net long 11,603 contracts following a week over week reduction of 8,964 contracts. As for KC wheat futures managed money was net short by 24,159 contracts. that was a weekly strengthening to their position on net of 9,907 contracts. the last time spec traders were net long KC wheat was December 24th of last year. The weekly commitment of traders reports also showed managed money was net short 23,231 contracts for MGE HRS wheat futures. Dating back to June of ’06, managed money spec funds have never held a larger bearish position.

Mar 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.32 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents,

Mar 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.42 3/4, unch,

Mar 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.25 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures were higher Friday, by more than $2 in many contracts. Dec futures finished the week with a $2.17 1/2 gain over last week. Feb futures led the Friday rally with a $2.72 push. Feeder cattle futures neared the $4.00 mark, with Jan futures finishing with a $3.95 gain pushing the wk/wk gain to $4.21 1/2 to go into the weekend. The 12/12 CME Feeder Cattle index was at $143.40 after a 9 cent recovery. Live cattle spec traders were shown at 81,013 contracts long on net as of Tuesday. Their CFTC net position grew by 2,799 contracts wk/wk. Managed money was net long feeders too, with the Commitment of Traders report showing a wk/wk increase of 260 contracts to 1,631 net long. Spec trader OI was down from last week but above the 5-week average. The USDA afternoon update showed wholesale boxed beef prices tightened the spread after a small increase. Choice boxes were up by $0.64, while select boxes were $1.68 higher, and the current Chc/Sel spread was 12.05. The USDA reported Friday cash sales of live cattle from $118 to $122 higher, reports range from $188 to $194 for dressed cattle sales. Results from this Friday’s FCE auction saw 977 head unsold, with offers of $120-121. The USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter to be 662,000 head through Saturday, that is 8,000 head above the same week last year, and pushed the yearly estimate to 31.69 million head.

Dec 19 Cattle closed at $122.500, up $2.075,

Feb 20 Cattle closed at $127.825, up $2.725,

Apr 20 Cattle closed at $128.425, up $2.225,

Jan 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.500, up $3.950

Mar 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.775, up $3.325

Apr 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.450, up $2.875

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures were higher on Friday, with gains of 60 cents to $1.87 in the nearby contracts, while Feb gained $1.950 cents on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index for 12/11 was up 26 cents to $59.72. Managed money was shown Net short hog futures in the weekly update from the CFTC. As of Tuesday, spec traders were 8,220 contracts short with a wk/wk growth of 4,446 contracts. USDA’s pork carcass cutout value was up by 22 cents on Friday afternoon, primal cuts were mixed with the biggest moves coming from Hams (-3.45) and Loins (+2.95). Friday the 13th’s national average base hog price was at $47.94, up $0.13. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter through Saturday to be 2.763 million head, which is 36,000 head behind last week’s record pace, but puts the YTD estimate at 123.431 million head.

Feb 20 Hogs closed at $69.250, up $0.600,

Apr 20 Hogs closed at $76.075, up $1.450

May 20 Hogs closed at $82.700, up $1.875

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

The cotton market closed in the red on Friday, with front month futures down by as much as 46 points. That wasn’t enough to erase earlier March gains, as the front month futures were higher wk/wk, by 71 points. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed that managed money was again net short cotton. The short shrank by 4,702 contracts wk/wk to 2,959 contracts. The Seam online cotton trading reported 55,784 bales sold online, with a 3.7% increase in average gross price. WTD bales sold is at 97,253 bales, an increase of 45.99% over last week’s (active) sales with Friday’s data yet to be added to the increase. The Cotlook A Index remained firm and is still at 75.35 for 12/12. The updated AWP for cotton increased by 69 points to 56.66 cents per lb.

Mar 20 Cotton closed at 66.71, down 46 points,

May 20 Cotton closed at 67.88, down 23 points

Jul 20 Cotton closed at 68.76, up 9 points

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 68.62, unch

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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