Valued at a market cap of $21.9 billion, Dow Inc. (DOW) is a prominent Michigan-based materials science company that delivers a broad range of products and solutions used across various industries, including packaging, infrastructure, automotive, and consumer goods.

Shares of Dow have underperformed the broader market considerably over the past year. DOW stock has declined 47.9% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) is up 11.9%. In 2025, the stock is down 22.8%, compared to $SPX’s marginal fall on a YTD basis.

Narrowing the focus, DOW has also trailed the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLB) 5.8% drop over the past year and 2.8% gains on a YTD basis.

Dow released its first quarter earnings on Apr. 24, pushing its shares up by 2.6%. It posted net sales of $10.4 billion, a 3% year-over-year decline, driven by lower prices across all operating segments. Despite this, the company saw a 2% increase in volume compared to the previous year, with gains in all regions except Latin America. Its operating earnings per share were $0.02, surpassing analyst expectations of a $0.01 loss. 

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect DOW’s EPS to decrease 79% year over year to $0.36. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing on two other occasions.

Dow stock has a consensus “Hold” rating overall. Out of 19 analysts covering the stock, three advise a "Strong Buy," 15 suggest a "Hold," and the remaining analyst advocates a “Moderate Sell.”

The current consensus is a step down from the overall “Moderate Buy” rating two months ago. 

On Apr. 26, Fermium Research analyst Frank J. Mitsch upgraded Dow from “Hold” to “Buy,” setting a price target of $35, following its better-than-expected Q1 2025 results. Mitsch cited the company's strategic delay of its Ft. Saskatchewan Path2Zero project, freeing up $600 million in capex, as a major positive, alongside anticipated cash inflows from infrastructure asset sales and litigation proceeds, which together help ease dividend sustainability concerns through 2026. 

The mean price target of $35.63 suggests a 19.9% premium to the current levels. The Street-high target of $57 represents an impressive upside potential of 47.6%.