Valued at a market cap of $16.3 billion, Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) is a U.S.-based insurance services company headquartered in Erie, Pennsylvania. It serves as the managing attorney-in-fact for the Erie Insurance Exchange, which is a reciprocal insurance exchange offering auto, home, business, and life insurance.

Shares of ERIE have underperformed the broader market, plunging 12.1%  over the past 52 weeks and 13.3% this year. In contrast, the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has gained 11.9% and is down marginally in 2025.

Zooming out, ERIE has lagged behind the SPDR S&P Insurance ETF (KIE). The exchange-traded fund has gained 15.1% over the past 52 weeks and 4.4% on a YTD basis.

On April 25, Erie Indemnity reported its fiscal Q1 2025 results. Net income rose 11.1% year-over-year to $138.4 million, while total operating revenue climbed 12.3% to $989.4 million, driven by a 13.4% increase in management fee revenue and a 29% surge in investment income, reflecting stronger bond yields and robust returns from limited partnerships. 

Despite the healthy growth metrics, earnings per share came in at $2.65, falling short of consensus estimates due to elevated operating expenses, primarily tied to personnel and IT investments. The earnings miss triggered a sharp market reaction, with shares sliding 11.5% post-earnings. 

For fiscal 2025, which ends in December, analysts expect Erie Indemnity’s EPS to grow 9.9% to $12.62. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters while missing in the previous quarter.

ERIE stock has a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating overall. Of the two analysts covering the stock, one recommends a “Strong Buy,” and one suggests a “Hold” rating. 

This configuration has been consistent over the past few months. 

The stock is currently trading above its average price target.