The information and opinions expressed below are based on my analysis of price behavior and chart activity

Tuesday, May 13, 2025

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Every morning, at about 8 AM CST, I post a short video highlighting where I see opportunities in the futures markets.  You can view my most recent video here   

July Soybeans (Daily) 

July Soybeans settled at 10.72 ¼ today, up 1 ¼ cents.   Yesterday’s WASDE did nothing for the bears and the market closed some 18 ¾ cents off the lows of the day.  Today, the market exceeded that, closing some 19 ¼ cents off of the lows.  That performance over the past two days indicates good buying interest to my eye, as shown by the large “wicks” under the green “bodies.”  The Beans posted higher highs and higher lows for the past 3 sessions, which is also a bullish characteristic.  Today’s close is also the highest since February 11^th.  The 5- and 10-day moving averages made a bullish crossover today, signaling a short-term trend shift to me.   Those are at 10.56 and 10.52, respectively.  (blue/red)  The 200-day average (purple) is at 10.47 1/2, below the market for sure, but still on the decline, as I see it.  That long-term average may turn out to be key.  Notice how the price has consolidated around that average for the past month or so. If it was still a bearish market, that consolidation would have resulted in a sell-off by now, I think, as shown by the previous interaction with that average, back in February.  That was only a 2-day blip.   One close above that average, traded higher the next day but closed under the average. And if you can go back even further, in May of last year (not pictured) it looks like that was just a 1-day blip.  Only one day, 5/7/24, saw a close above the 200-day, at that time. Since April 14^th, there have been 21 trading days.  On 15 of those days, price have interacted with the 200-day.  9 of those days have been closes above that average, with the rest being below it.  This seems different than the previous moves to me, would you agree?   The 100- and 50-day averages (grey/green, 10.44 4/2 and 10.36 ½) are offering potential support, technically in bearish territory, but are inclined, which I think is also supportive.  Stochastic readings are overbought, however if you look back in time, I think you might see that markets can stay overbought/oversold for extended periods, and are not often signals for immediate corrections.  Aggressive and well-margined traders may do well to consider long futures positions with a target near the February high of 11.04 ¾. I’ll leave the protective stop level up to you, but if new lows for the week are achieved over the next few days, you may want to run for the exits.  Less aggressive traders may choose to look at July Call options.  Those expire in 38 days.  A July 11.00 Call settled at 12 1/8, or $606.25 per option, before commissions and fees.  Perhaps a reasonable target on those could be 2x what you paid for them.  If that target is hit within a reasonable time frame, say over the next two weeks or so, I would look to do that same type of trade again at a different strike price.

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Every morning, at about 8 AM CST,  I post a short video highlighting where I see opportunities in the futures markets.  You can view my most recent video here   

July Soybeans (Weekly)

To my eye, the weekly July Soybean chart looks like a market that is trying to find a bottom.  Since making the contract high at 13.74 ¾ in April of 22 (3 years ago!) the market has been working its way lower.  Every few months, new lows would get made and the subsequent rallies would fail to test or take out the previous highs.  Lower lows and lower highs have been a fairly consistent feature of the Bean market over the past 3 years.  Until recently, I think.  July Beans made that spike low at 9.66 in the middle of December and then rallied for a bit to take out early-November highs.  The “tariff selloff” did not get that low (9.85) and posted a large Bullish Engulfment the following week (big green bar, 6 bars/weeks back)  Since then, the market has really gone “sideways” with no significant price moves from week to week.  I see several moving averages below the market, the 5-week (blue, 10.57 3/4) the 10-week (red, 10.42 3/8) are pictured on the chart above and have been good support levels for the past six weeks.  The 5- and 10- made a bullish crossover 2 weeks ago, as well.  The 50-week moving average (green, 10.61 5/8) is also below the market and offering some support, I think.  We haven’t seen July Beans close a week above that average since the last week of 2023, and there’s still 3 sessions left in this week.  Stochastics (subgraph) are just approaching overbought status, and are pointing toward higher prices.  There is overhead resistance, with the closest being the 10.80 mark, then to 11.00 or the February high of 11.04 3/4 The closest moving average resistance on the chart might be the 100-week (grey, 11.48 7/8)  You may also notice that there is a gap on that chart, left at the beginning of 2024 up at 12.56 ¾.  It would be foolish at this point, I think, to shoot for that as a target.  I see nothing, currently, to indicate a wild rally like that.  But futures markets do tend to fill in price gaps, regardless of how long it takes.  I think it’s more likely that gap will be filled by a further out contract than July. 

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Every morning, at about 8 AM CST,  I post a short video highlighting where I see opportunities in the futures markets.  You can view my most recent video here   

Jefferson Fosse  Walsh Trading

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